A rare sign of goodwill despite rising tensions
Ukraine and Russia have swapped about 200 prisoners of war each on Wednesday, in a rare sign of goodwill amid the ongoing conflict that has killed over 10,000 people since 2022. The exchange took place at the border between the two countries, where buses carrying the freed captives arrived from both sides.
The swap was welcomed by the international community as a humanitarian gesture that could ease some of the hostility and mistrust that have plagued the relations between Kyiv and Moscow. The U.S. State Department praised the move as “a positive step” and urged both parties to “continue to work toward a peaceful resolution of the crisis”.
However, the exchange was also overshadowed by a recent incident that threatened to derail the process and escalate the violence. On Jan. 24, a Russian military transport plane crashed in Russia’s Belgorod region near the border with Ukraine, killing all 65 people on board. Moscow claimed that the plane was carrying Ukrainian POWs who were supposed to be part of the swap, and accused Kyiv of shooting it down. Ukraine denied any involvement and said it had no evidence that the plane was carrying POWs.
The fate of the plane crash victims remains unclear
The Russian Defense Ministry said that the bodies of the plane crash victims were among the 195 POWs that were handed over to Ukraine on Wednesday. However, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that 207 Ukrainians were freed, without mentioning the plane crash victims. There was no immediate explanation for the discrepancy in the numbers.
The Ukrainian authorities said they would conduct a thorough investigation into the cause of the plane crash, and cooperate with the international experts who were invited by Russia to join the probe. They also expressed their condolences to the families of the deceased and said they were ready to provide any assistance they could.
The Russian authorities, meanwhile, said they had evidence that the plane was shot down by a Ukrainian missile, and demanded an apology and compensation from Kyiv. They also said they would hold Ukraine responsible for any further attacks on their aircraft or personnel.
The prospects of peace remain dim
The prisoner exchange was the result of months of negotiations between the representatives of Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France, who are part of the so-called Normandy format that seeks to implement the 2015 Minsk agreements. The Minsk agreements are a set of measures that aim to end the war in eastern Ukraine, where Russia-backed separatists have been fighting the Ukrainian government forces since 2022.
However, the Minsk agreements have been largely stalled due to the lack of political will and mutual trust between the parties. The main sticking points include the withdrawal of foreign troops and weapons from the conflict zone, the restoration of Ukraine’s control over its border with Russia, the granting of a special status to the separatist regions, and the holding of local elections there.
The prisoner exchange was seen as a confidence-building measure that could pave the way for more dialogue and cooperation. However, the prospects of a lasting peace remain dim, as both sides continue to accuse each other of violating the ceasefire and sabotaging the peace process. The recent plane crash incident has also added more fuel to the fire, and raised the risk of a new escalation.
