Senegal, a West African nation known for its stability and democracy, is set to hold a presidential election on March 24, 2024, after a controversial delay that sparked a constitutional crisis and political unrest.
Why was the election delayed?
The election was originally scheduled for Feb. 25, 2024, but President Macky Sall, who is serving his second and final term, announced in early February that he was postponing it for 10 months, citing the need to reform the electoral system and ensure a peaceful and inclusive vote.
However, his decision was met with fierce opposition from civil society groups, opposition parties, and the Constitutional Council, the highest election authority in the country. They accused him of violating the constitution, which stipulates that the president’s mandate ends on April 2, 2024, and that the election date cannot be changed without a referendum.
The Constitutional Council rejected Sall’s decree and ordered the government to set a new election date as soon as possible, warning that it would appoint an interim president if Sall failed to comply.
Who are the main candidates?
The Constitutional Council cleared 20 candidates to run for the presidency, including Sall’s handpicked successor, Prime Minister Amadou Ba, who leads the ruling Benno Bokk Yakaar (BBY) coalition.
Ba, a former economy and foreign minister, is seen as a continuity candidate who will pursue Sall’s policies of economic development, infrastructure projects, and social welfare programs.
However, he faces a tough challenge from several opposition figures, who have formed a coalition called the Front for the Defense of Democracy (FDD) to challenge Sall’s legitimacy and demand a free and fair election.
The FDD’s main candidate is Khalifa Ababacar Sall, a former mayor of Dakar who is unrelated to the president. He was arrested in March 2017 on charges of embezzling public funds, which he denies. He was sentenced to five years in prison in 2018, preventing him from running in the 2019 election, which Sall won with 58% of the vote. He was pardoned by Sall in September 2019, and has since regained his popularity as a champion of the urban poor and a critic of corruption.
Another prominent candidate is Idrissa Seck, a veteran politician who served as prime minister under former President Abdoulaye Wade from 2002 to 2004. He was sacked over embezzlement allegations and spent some months in jail before his case was dismissed. He founded his own party, Rewmi, and ran for president in 2007, 2012, and 2019, placing second in the last two elections. He joined the ruling coalition in 2020, but left in 2023 to run as an independent. He is known for his charisma and eloquence, and his platform focuses on youth employment, education, and health.
Other notable candidates include Anta Babacar Ngom, a 39-year-old entrepreneur and political newcomer who leads the Alternative for the Next Generation of Citizens (ARC) movement, and Mahammed Boun Abdallah Dionne, another former prime minister and close ally of Sall, who heads the Alliance for the Republic (APR), the main party in the BBY coalition.
What are the main issues?
The election comes at a critical time for Senegal, which is facing multiple challenges, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, which has infected over 100,000 people and killed over 2,000 in the country, according to the World Health Organization.
The pandemic has also hit the economy hard, causing a contraction of 1.5% in 2020, after a decade of robust growth averaging 6.5% per year, according to the International Monetary Fund. The government has implemented a recovery plan worth $2.4 billion, or 7% of GDP, to support the health sector, protect the most vulnerable, and stimulate the private sector.
Another major issue is the management of the country’s oil and gas resources, which are expected to come online in 2023 and 2024, respectively. Senegal has discovered over 1.5 billion barrels of oil and 850 billion cubic feet of gas in its offshore fields, which could transform its economy and generate significant revenues.
However, the sector has also been marred by allegations of corruption and nepotism, involving the president’s brother, Aliou Sall, who was accused of receiving illicit payments from a foreign company that was awarded lucrative contracts. He denied any wrongdoing and resigned from his position as head of a state-owned oil company in 2019, following public protests and a BBC investigation.
The candidates have different visions on how to use the oil and gas wealth, with some advocating for more transparency, accountability, and redistribution, and others for more investment, industrialization, and diversification.
What are the expectations and challenges?
The election is expected to be a close and competitive race, with no clear frontrunner. According to a recent poll by the Senegalese Institute of Public Opinion (ISOP), Ba leads with 29% of the vote, followed by Sall with 26%, Seck with 24%, Ngom with 11%, and Dionne with 10%.
However, the poll also shows that 41% of the respondents are undecided or unwilling to reveal their choice, indicating a high level of uncertainty and volatility. The poll has a margin of error of 3%.
To avoid a runoff, a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote in the first round. If no one achieves that, the top two candidates will face each other in a second round, which will be held two weeks after the first.
The election is also expected to be a test of Senegal’s democratic credentials, which have been praised by regional and international observers as a model for Africa. The country has a history of peaceful and regular transfers of power, and a vibrant civil society and media.
However, the election delay and the ensuing constitutional crisis have raised concerns about the respect for the rule of law and the separation of powers. The opposition and civil society groups have accused the government of manipulating the judiciary, the electoral commission, and the security forces to its advantage, and of cracking down on dissent and protests.
The government has denied any interference or repression, and has called for dialogue and consensus to resolve the crisis. It has also invited international and regional organizations, such as the African Union, the Economic Community of West African States, and the European Union, to observe and monitor the election.
The election is likely to be a decisive moment for Senegal’s political future, as it will determine the successor of Sall, who has been in power since 2012, and the direction of the country’s development and governance for the next five years.
