The International Energy Agency (IEA) has released a new report that calls for a rapid and comprehensive transformation of the global energy system to limit the rise in global temperatures to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. The report, titled “Net Zero by 2050: A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector”, outlines the steps that governments, businesses and citizens need to take to achieve net-zero emissions by mid-century, as well as the benefits and challenges of doing so.
A historic opportunity for clean energy
The report states that the Covid-19 pandemic has created a historic opportunity to accelerate the shift to clean energy, as countries plan to invest trillions of dollars in economic recovery. The IEA estimates that global CO2 emissions will rebound to pre-crisis levels in 2023, unless more ambitious policies are implemented. The report warns that the current pledges made by countries under the Paris Agreement are far from enough to reach the 1.5°C goal, and that the window of opportunity is closing fast.
To achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, the report proposes a roadmap that includes over 400 milestones for the global energy sector. Some of the key recommendations are:
- No new investments in coal, oil or gas supply projects from now on, unless they are compatible with net-zero emissions.
- A massive expansion of renewable energy, especially solar and wind, which should account for 90% of electricity generation by 2050.
- A rapid phase-out of coal-fired power plants, with no new ones built after 2021, and existing ones retired or retrofitted with carbon capture and storage (CCS) by 2040.
- A major increase in energy efficiency, with the global rate of improvement doubling to 4% per year by 2030.
- A widespread electrification of end-use sectors, such as transport, buildings and industry, with electric vehicles making up 60% of car sales by 2030 and 100% by 2050.
- A significant scale-up of low-carbon fuels, such as hydrogen, biofuels and synthetic fuels, which should provide 20% of total energy supply by 2050.
- A large deployment of CCS and negative emissions technologies, such as bioenergy with CCS and direct air capture, which should remove 7.6 gigatons of CO2 per year by 2050.
Benefits and challenges of the energy transition
The report highlights the multiple benefits of the energy transition, such as improved air quality, enhanced energy security, reduced energy poverty, increased innovation and job creation, and lower energy bills for consumers. The report estimates that the net-zero pathway would create 30 million new jobs by 2030, and boost global GDP by 4% by 2050, compared to the current trajectory.
However, the report also acknowledges the significant challenges and uncertainties that the energy transition entails, such as the need for unprecedented levels of international cooperation, policy coordination, public engagement, financing and innovation. The report stresses that the energy transition must be fair and inclusive, ensuring that no one is left behind, and that the interests and concerns of all stakeholders are addressed.
The report also emphasizes the role of innovation and technology in enabling the energy transition, and identifies over 100 critical innovations that need to be developed and deployed at scale by 2050. These include advanced batteries, green hydrogen, carbon capture and storage, smart grids, digital platforms, and low-carbon materials.
The report concludes that the net-zero pathway is technically and economically feasible, but requires a radical transformation of the global energy system, as well as strong political will and societal commitment. The report urges all actors to act now and act together, to seize the opportunity and meet the challenge of the climate crisis.
